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数据/事件风险

　　USD: Durable goods data always a fairly volatile one so can knock the dollar if weaker, but generally the market has a strong ability to shake the data off.

　　EUR:Focus on events in Cyprus and further details on the likely hit to larger depositers (over EUR 100K). The single currency is proving sensitive to longer-term considerations, as the reaction to comments from head of the Eurogroup Dijsselbloem showed yesterday.

　　美元：耐用品数据总是相当波动的一个，因此疲软的话可能会打击美元，但总体上市场有很强的能力摆脱这种数据的影响。

　　欧元：焦点集中在塞浦路斯的事件，更多细节可能会涉及到存款大户(高于10万欧元)。欧元对于长期考虑因素越来越敏感，昨天对于欧元集团首脑Dijsselbloem的评论的反应就是如此。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日想法

　　The euro was already displaying a classic “buy the rumour, sell the fact”move in the wake of the Cyprus deal yesterday morning but was pushed into the European close by comments from the Dutch Finance Minister who leads the grouping of Eurozone finance ministers (Dijsselbloem). From saying last week that the situation in Cyprus was ‘unique’he yesterday said it was a template for other potential bank restructurings in the Eurozone. This marked an abrupt change of emphasis, one which translates to making the debt-holders, shareholders and uninsured depositors pay for the risks taken on in banks, rather than having tax payers bail them out. Now, in theory that’s not such a bad idea and a place where most governments around the world want to get to. The trouble is that banks are still too large and cumbersome for this to be the case. So markets were somewhat surprised by the change of emphasis. That said, this does underpin our view that fallout from the Cyprus deal is something that is going to bear down on the single currency in the coming weeks. Cyprus may be small, but the damage to the single currency’s viability and the EU’s political reputation has been larger than for any other previous bailout.

　　昨天上午塞浦路斯的协议达成后欧元已经显示出典型的“听信谣言买入，依据事实卖出”的行为，但是在欧洲交易期收盘时又被领导欧元区财长的荷兰财长 (Dijsselbloem)推了一把。上周他说塞浦路斯的情况是“独一无二”的，不过昨天他又说这种情况对于欧元区未来的银行重组是一个模版。这标志着 重点的一个突变，意思就是让债务持有人，股东，和没有保险的存款人承担银行的风险，而不是让纳税人来救助。现在，理论上这不是一个坏主意，也是世界上大多 数政府想达到的境界。但问题是众多银行是船大难掉头。因此市场对于这种重点的改变很吃惊。如上所述，这种情况并没有让我们相信塞浦路斯协议的影响会在未来 几周让欧元处于压力之下。塞浦路斯也许是小国家，但是对比此前的救助计划，塞浦路斯对于欧元活力以及欧盟的政治声誉的损害是很大的。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　EUR: The “Dijsselbomb”pressured EURUSD down to the 200d moving average at 1.2881 and key Fibonacci level at 1.2877 to touch 1.2830. We’ve seen a marginal recovery during the Asia session, but the renewed uncertainty is likely to hang over the single currency.

　　GBP: Sterling was largely drifting on Monday, but was higher vs. the EUR as the single currency was weighed down in the wake of the Cyprus deal.

　　JPY:More comments from the new BoJ Governor Kuroda overnight, again suggesting that the BoJ may extend the maturities of bonds purchased under its quantitative easing program.

　　AUD:Touched a 2-month high at 1.0480 and remained well supported overnight. No mention of monetary policy in latest speech by RBA governor Stevens overnight, which has added some support as market becomes more confident that rate cuts are not on the agenda.

　　欧元：“Dijsselbloem炸弹”压迫欧元美元下降到200天移动均线附近，位于1.2881处。而关键Fibonacci 水平位于1.2877，快触到1.2830。亚洲交易期内已经出现一定程度的复苏，但是持续的不确定性还是会笼罩在欧元之上。

　　英镑：周一英镑基本上在下跌，但是对比欧元还是走高了，因为欧元因为塞浦路斯协议的影响而走低。

　　日元：日本银行新总裁Kuroda前一天发布了更多言论，再次提示日本银行可能会延长在量化宽松计划中购买的债权的到期时间。

　　澳元：达到了两个月的高点1.0480，前一天得到了良好的支持。澳洲联储总裁Stevens前一天最新的演讲中没有提到货币政策，这种情况会给澳元提供一些支持，因为既然降息不在提上议事日程，市场就变得更加有信心了。

　　FX Alerts

　　DAY AFTER THE DIJSSELBOMB

　　DIJSSELBLOEM 炸弹之后的日子

　　26/03/13@ 08:22 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130326/dijsselbloem-zhadan-zhihou

　　EURUSD is weakening at the start of the European session, sentiment still a little heavy after the bomb dropped by Dutch Finance Minister (and head of Europgroup) Dijsselbloem, suggesting that the Cypriot bailout was a model for others, in contrast to being 'unique' as indicated last week. We're also seeing contradictory comments from ECB Board Member Coeure, suggesting Cyprus is not a template for others. The fact that Cypriot banks are now closed to Thursday after a partial re-opening was announced yesterday evening, has also dented confidence a little. There is talk of large option expiries at the 1.2750 area so that could induce more volatility on the euro on a day where market moving data is on the light side for the dollar, with just durable goods at 12:30 GMT and consumer confidence at 14:00 GMT. The 200 day moving average for EURUSD also key at 1.2882.

　　欧元美元在欧洲交易期开盘后疲软。荷兰财长丢下一个炸弹，说塞浦路斯的救助计划对于其他国家一个模版，与上周他说塞浦路斯问题是“独一无二”时形成了 对比，这让气氛变得有一点沉重。我们也发现欧洲央行董事会成员Coeure发出了相反的评论，他说塞浦路斯对于其他国家不是模版。而现在塞浦路斯银行将关 闭一直到周四，但昨天晚上还宣布将部分重开，这也让市场信心有一点受损。有人在谈论1.2750区域大的购股权会过期，这样的话，当驱动市场的数据对于美 元有利时，会让欧元出现更大的波动。这些对美元有利的数据包括格林尼治时间12点30分的耐用品数据，14点的消费者信心数据。欧元美元的200天移动均 线也在1.2882这个关键点。

　　FX Alerts

　　US FEB DURABLE GOODS ORDERS ROSE 5.7%

　　美国二月份耐用品订单上涨5.7%

　　26/03/13@ 12:42 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130326/meiguo-eryue-naiyongpin-dingdan-shangzhang-57

　　US Durable Goods spike 5.7% in February but ex-transport down 0.5%. EURUSD 1.2862.

　　美国耐用品二月份上涨了5.7%，但是出口运输下降了0.5%。欧元美元位于1.2862。

　　FX Alerts

　　USDCAD HITS ONE MONTH LOW AT 1.0165

　　美元加元触底达到月低点1.0165

　　26/03/13@ 13:33 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130326/meiyuan-jiayuan-chudi-dadao-yuedidian-10165

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　　FX Alerts

　　EURO LITTLE CHANGED AFTER US DATA

　　美国数据发布后欧元无所触动

　　26/03/13@ 14:07 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130326/meiguo-shuju-fabuhou-ouyuan-wusuo-chudong

　　EURUSD little changed at 1.2870 after strong fall in US consumer confidence, from 68 to 59.7. New home sales down -4.6%.

　　美国消费者信心数据大幅下降，从68下跌到59.7。而欧元美元没有太多变动，位于1.2870。新房销售下降到-4.6%。